More than 300 people attended the 25th Knowledge Is Power (KIP) lecture “Countdown to Extinction: Geologic vs. Human-Caused Planetary Changes.” This special Earth Day seminar marks year 15 of KIP events at the college and featured expert information from Paul Manganelli, professor of geology, Dr. Heinrich Goetz, professor of environmental science and Dr. Dianne Stroman, professor of environmental science.
If you missed this KIP session, you can still learn a few facts that might change the way you think about our world.
What’s the big idea?
Attendees got the skinny on carbon dioxide concentration in earth’s atmosphere: human effects and natural geologic changes.
Do you know the difference between weather and climate?
Heinrich explained:
Weather = what we experience outside; it changes day to day
Climate = long term trends; averages of weather over time must be calculated
How old is earth?
The earth is 4.6 billion years old (1,000 million years = 1 billion years)
A 20-year-old student has been alive for 0.0000004% of earth’s history.
Did you know you can measure time on your outstretched arm?
Picture an image of your arm stretched out with your palm facing up. Here are a few fun landmarks.
- Formation of the earth = shoulder
- Eukaryotic single celled organisms = forearm
- Mass extinction wiped out dinosaurs 65 million years ago = middle of middle fingernail
- Human civilization = the tip of middle finger
How can we measure changes in the earth over time?
According to Goetz, we can look at tree rings, ice core data (trapped bubbles of air) from Greenland and Antarctica, and certain corals because they grow in layers and fossilized pollen.
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide is on the rise.
In 1960, the atmospheric carbon dioxide was approximately 315 parts per million. By 2012, that level had increased by 30%.
There are several greenhouse gases. Why are we focusing on carbon dioxide concentrations?
According to Heinrich, other greenhouse gases include nitrous oxide, water vapor and methane, but carbon dioxide makes up the largest percentage by volume of greenhouse gases, other than water vapor, and is one we can control.
Why should you care about carbon dioxide emission and atmospheric concentration?
“We are the ultimate cause,” said Heinrich. “The top 10 carbon dioxide emitters (including the U.S.) produce 72% of greenhouse gas emissions. We have a moral responsibility to tackle this problem. It doesn’t matter where it is coming from because it affects all of us. We share the same atmosphere.”
Can you guess the top two emitting countries?
If you guessed China as number one and the U.S. as number two, you are correct.
Is there any good news?
According to Heinrich, the U.S. has seen a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions, but it is not steep enough. “Renewable energy, solar and wind are helping. Texas is the leader in wind power in the U.S. Wind power just recently surpassed coal.”
What’s the takeaway?
“Over the last 800,000 years, during periods of high carbon dioxide concentration the temperature tends to be warmer, and with periods of low carbon dioxide concentration it tends to be cooler,” Manganelli said. He added that the models predict a 2-4-degree Celsius increase in average global temperature. That works out to be an increase of 3.6-7.2 degrees Fahrenheit.
What does coral reef bleaching have to do with this?
According to Heinrich, the oceans have absorbed excess carbon dioxide, but that makes the water more acidic. Like other aquatic organisms that build a shell, corals struggle in a more acidic environment. They are also sensitive to temperature changes.
“Coral is an animal,” said Heinrich. “Inside their bodies they have symbiotic algae that gives the coral food. If the coral is stressed, the algae is ejected, and the coral loses its color. It isn’t dead yet, but unless the stress situation changes it will die. A small increase in temperature can cause coral bleaching. In recent history, the first bleaching was approximately 30 years ago.”
When was “The Great Dying?”
According to Manganelli, extinction occurs regularly in earth history. There have been five major mass extinctions. The largest mass extinction, the Permian extinction, is commonly called “The Great Dying.” This was 250 million years ago or, using the arm-length geologic time scale analogy, where your finger meets the palm of your hand.
“Ninety-five percent of marine life, and 70 percent of land species became extinct. There is fossil evidence of coral bleaching and ocean acidification, and an increase in carbon dioxide is the likely cause. This came largely from high rates of volcanism. The rate of carbon dioxide injection into the atmosphere during the Permian extinction is similar to the current anthropogenic (human-caused) rate.”
Manganelli ended on a positive note. “We have the ability to recognize the problem and the intelligence to come up with solutions.”
Want to know a couple of cool facts about the presenters?
Goetz was on a space flight training team for mechanical systems on the International Space Station. Manganelli was a core logging/underground mine geologist at Eskay Creek Gold Mine, and he chases tornadoes.